Jawar Mohammed
The status of Meles Zenawi’s health is unclear. But one thing is not in doubt: we are already in a post-Meles era, and the ruling clique is scrambling to reach consensus on a successor. Two months after the strong man’s collapse, they do not seem to have been able to agree his replacement. Sebehat Nega’s’ repeated interviews contradicting the official stories about Meles’ health, and his decision to appear on ESAT, an opposition media banned by the regime speaks volumes about the intense friction underneath the facade of calmness. While they are struggling to overcome this incapacitating dilemma, the sudden and mysterious death of the Patriarch of the Orthodox Church has added more trouble to the situation. Abune Paulos, a Tigrean, who was enthroned in 1992, by displacing a living patriarch had been a staunch ally of the ruling clique. The choice of his replacement will undoubtedly be contentious, especially if the regime decides to install another loyalist Tigrean.
Adding to this is the fact that president Girma Woldegiorgis, who recently survived a near-death experience at age 88, will have to be replaced this fall as he is completing his second term. Even more contentious is the issue surrounding the fate of Alemayehu Atomsa, president of Oromia, the largest region in the federation. Having fallen ill just months after his appointment in 2010, Alemayehu has been too sick to effectively undertake his duties. The region’s administrative affairs have been so paralysed in the last two years that the demand to replace him with a healthy president has become widespread. Currently, the OPDO central committee is in the middle of a heated debate in search of a replacement.
These calamities present a peculiar test to the continued domination of the TPLF. Four important posts have to be filled within a month. Any possible controversy about any one of them could generate a ripple effect on all. For the positions of prime minister and patriarch, the trouble for the regime is whether to replace the incumbents with Tigreans or entrust these key positions to outsiders. The federal presidency is a powerless position, and yet it will be closely watched due to its symbolic significance. For the Oromia region, the litmus test is whether, in the absence of Meles, the TPLF will be able to install a candidate of its choice against stubborn opposition from the OPDO leadership and rank and file. Current developments show that if the TPLF succeeds in dictating who leads the OPDO – as it has done for 22 years – it will perhaps has to be at gunpoint.
Filling the Big Man’s Shoes
The status of Meles Zenawi’s health is unclear. But one thing is not in doubt: we are already in a post-Meles era, and the ruling clique is scrambling to reach consensus on a successor. Two months after the strong man’s collapse, they do not seem to have been able to agree his replacement. Sebehat Nega’s’ repeated interviews contradicting the official stories about Meles’ health, and his decision to appear on ESAT, an opposition media banned by the regime speaks volumes about the intense friction underneath the facade of calmness. While they are struggling to overcome this incapacitating dilemma, the sudden and mysterious death of the Patriarch of the Orthodox Church has added more trouble to the situation. Abune Paulos, a Tigrean, who was enthroned in 1992, by displacing a living patriarch had been a staunch ally of the ruling clique. The choice of his replacement will undoubtedly be contentious, especially if the regime decides to install another loyalist Tigrean.
Adding to this is the fact that president Girma Woldegiorgis, who recently survived a near-death experience at age 88, will have to be replaced this fall as he is completing his second term. Even more contentious is the issue surrounding the fate of Alemayehu Atomsa, president of Oromia, the largest region in the federation. Having fallen ill just months after his appointment in 2010, Alemayehu has been too sick to effectively undertake his duties. The region’s administrative affairs have been so paralysed in the last two years that the demand to replace him with a healthy president has become widespread. Currently, the OPDO central committee is in the middle of a heated debate in search of a replacement.
These calamities present a peculiar test to the continued domination of the TPLF. Four important posts have to be filled within a month. Any possible controversy about any one of them could generate a ripple effect on all. For the positions of prime minister and patriarch, the trouble for the regime is whether to replace the incumbents with Tigreans or entrust these key positions to outsiders. The federal presidency is a powerless position, and yet it will be closely watched due to its symbolic significance. For the Oromia region, the litmus test is whether, in the absence of Meles, the TPLF will be able to install a candidate of its choice against stubborn opposition from the OPDO leadership and rank and file. Current developments show that if the TPLF succeeds in dictating who leads the OPDO – as it has done for 22 years – it will perhaps has to be at gunpoint.
Filling the Big Man’s Shoes
Read More http://www.gulelepost.com/2012/08/20/death-and-sickness-of-leaders-threatens-to-distablize-tplf/
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